The Real Numbers
Not every projection tells the full story
Brochures love to quote "up to 20% gross yield" — but gross yield is only part of the picture. Once you subtract management fees, maintenance, taxes, platform commissions, and vacancy, your actual cash-in-pocket can be 40–50% lower than the headline number. This guide shows you how to calculate the numbers that actually matter.
Example Calculation
A real Canggu villa — from gross revenue to net cash
This example uses conservative Canggu 2025 assumptions. Your actual numbers will vary based on manager, pricing strategy, and season. Expect ±20% variance.
Key Metrics
The numbers that actually predict returns
01
ADR (Average Daily Rate)
The average price per night across the year. Canggu 3BRs typically earn $280–420 depending on finish, pool, view, and walk-to-beach.
02
Occupancy rate
Percentage of nights booked. Good Canggu villas hit 60–75% annually. Lower is fine if ADR is high; under 50% suggests pricing or positioning issues.
03
RevPAR (Revenue per available night)
ADR × occupancy. The single most useful pricing metric — a $350 ADR at 70% beats a $450 ADR at 50%.
04
Net yield
Net operating income ÷ total capital deployed. Realistic Bali net yields are 5–9% on leasehold villas, 3–6% on freehold (freehold ties up more capital).
05
Cash-on-cash return
If you financed any portion, cash-on-cash is net cash ÷ actual cash you put in. Most Bali deals are all-cash, so it equals net yield.
06
Appreciation
Capital growth over time. Canggu land has averaged 10–15% yoy over the last 5 years. Resale value includes land + structure + any remaining leasehold years.
Occupancy & Rates
How pricing strategy changes everything
2025 Canggu figures. Other areas (Seminyak, Ubud, Uluwatu) have different ADR structures. Always benchmark against 5–10 comparable villas in the same micro-area before pricing.
Stress Testing
5 scenarios every investor should run
Base case — steady state
Your realistic projection with current ADR, current occupancy, current costs. Most projections you see are already this — or slightly optimistic.
Soft market — –20% revenue
Occupancy drops to 52%, ADR softens 10%. Does the villa still cover its operating costs and debt service? Any healthy Bali investment should survive this.
COVID-level disruption — 6 months at 15% occupancy
The stress test every Bali villa should survive. Model at least 4 months of fixed costs with minimal revenue. Your net annual result will go negative — that is fine, the question is whether you can fund the shortfall.
Management fee creep — +5% costs
Managers renegotiate or quality drops and you change vendor mid-year. Add 5% on top of your baseline operating costs and recheck your net yield.
Exit at year 10 — leasehold depreciation
A 25-year leasehold at year 10 has 15 years of use remaining. Expect resale value at roughly 50–65% of your original entry price (before any appreciation). Factor this into your total return, not just annual yield.
Common Questions
Frequently asked questions
Run Your Numbers
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